With the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting next week, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool is projecting the Fed will continue to hold the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25-4.50% until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the U.S. central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month amid mounting risks to the economy and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures.

The average rate on 30-year fixed home loans increased to 6.75% for the week ending July 17, up from 6.72% last week.

Explore how the U-shaped yield curve, Treasury rates, and inflation trends align with Trump's rate cut call, offering insights for short-term investments.

Some investors had clung to a bit of hope that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at its next meeting on July 30. Tuesday's report on inflation brought the chances of that down even further.

A new report shows inflation has picked up and analysts believe the prices of many goods increased, in part, because of President Trump’s tariffs. It will play into decisions by the Federal Reserve about when and whether to cut interest rates and comes as the president and his team have ramped up their pressure campaign on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

"What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful," Bessent told CNBC's Squawk Box.

Ongoing uncertainty could cause rates to stay high, or increase further. For instance, if tariffs cause inflation to reignite, which most experts and Fed officials expect, it could result in higher bond yields and fewer interest rate cuts by the central bank. Both would be bad for mortgage rates.